Plan your wealth-building journey by projecting how your savings will grow over time. This simulator helps you visualize the path to your financial goals based on your current situation and investment strategy.
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Analyze how long your retirement savings might last under various market conditions. This simulator helps you determine a sustainable withdrawal strategy and evaluate the probability of your money lasting throughout retirement.
Probability of not running out of money ? Based on thousands of simulations, this is the percentage of scenarios where your savings last throughout your retirement.
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FIREcalc offers two powerful calculators to help you achieve financial independence and plan for early retirement:
Our calculators use Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical technique that runs many scenarios with different market returns to provide a range of possible outcomes.
Our simulations use historical market data from 1975 to 2020 for a realistic range of potential outcomes:
This period includes major events like:
Important Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results. These simulations provide estimates based on historical data but cannot predict future market performance with certainty.
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. It's a movement focused on extreme savings and investment to allow for early retirement. The core principle is to save and invest a large percentage of your income (often 50-70%) for a period of time, creating a portfolio that can sustain your living expenses indefinitely, typically through passive income or safe withdrawal strategies.
The 4% rule is a retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests you can withdraw 4% of your initial portfolio value annually (adjusted for inflation) with a high probability of not running out of money over a 30-year retirement. It originated from the Trinity Study and is a cornerstone of FIRE planning. Our retirement calculator allows you to test different withdrawal rates to find what works for your specific situation.
Your FIRE number is typically calculated as 25 times your annual expenses (based on the 4% rule). For example, if you need $40,000 per year to live, your FIRE number would be $1,000,000. The savings calculator can help you project how long it might take to reach this target. Many FIRE practitioners also distinguish between "lean FIRE" (minimal expenses), "regular FIRE," and "fat FIRE" (more generous spending) depending on lifestyle goals.
The projections provide reasonable estimates based on historical market behavior from 1975-2020, but cannot account for unprecedented events or structural economic changes. We recommend using the results as a planning guideline rather than an exact prediction. For critical financial decisions, consider consulting with a financial advisor who understands FIRE principles.
Most FIRE practitioners recommend using the conservative (90th percentile) estimate for critical planning to build in a safety margin. This helps protect against sequence of returns risk, which is particularly important for early retirees who have a longer retirement horizon. The median estimate shows the most statistically likely outcome, but using it provides less protection against market downturns early in retirement.
This chart shows both individual and cumulative distributions. The colored bars represent how many simulations reached the goal in exactly that year, while the green line shows the cumulative percentage of simulations that reached the goal by that year. This helps you understand both when you're most likely to reach your FIRE goal and the probability of reaching it within a certain timeframe.
The success rate is the percentage of simulations where your money lasted throughout your entire expected retirement period. For FIRE planning, many aim for a 90-95% success rate due to the longer retirement period. A higher success rate provides more confidence that your portfolio will survive market downturns, but may require you to work longer to build a larger nest egg.
The Retirement calculator applies your specified tax rate to determine how much you need to withdraw pre-tax to achieve your desired after-tax withdrawal amount. For FIRE planning, tax optimization is crucial - consider strategies like Roth conversion ladders, tax-loss harvesting, and staying in lower tax brackets by managing your income carefully.
You can account for these by reducing your withdrawal amount by the expected income from these sources. For example, if you need $40,000 annually but expect $10,000 from a rental property, you would set your withdrawal amount to $30,000. Many FIRE practitioners use a combination of portfolio withdrawals and side income ("barista FIRE" or "coast FIRE") to reduce pressure on their investment portfolio.
Both calculators use Monte Carlo simulation with historical inflation data, randomly sampling actual inflation rates for each year. In the Retirement calculator, enabling the "Adjust for Inflation" option ensures your withdrawals maintain purchasing power throughout your retirement. This is especially important for early retirees who may face 40+ years of inflation effects.
There's no one-size-fits-all answer, but many FIRE practitioners maintain a relatively high stock allocation (70-80%) even in retirement due to the longer time horizon. Use the Stock Allocation slider to test different allocations and see how they affect your success rate and potential portfolio growth. Consider decreasing stock allocation slightly as you approach your FIRE date to reduce sequence of returns risk.
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